Why 70% of Business Cases Never Become Successful Projects (And How to Fix It)

Here's an uncomfortable truth: The vast majority of approved business cases fail to deliver their promised value. Research consistently shows that 70-80% of projects fail to achieve their original business objectives.

Even worse? Most organizations don't even measure whether their projects delivered the promised ROI. They move on to the next initiative, leaving a trail of "successful deliveries" that failed to move the business forward.

Let's examine why this happens—and what you can do about it.

The Traditional Business Case is Broken

The standard business case process was designed for a different era. It assumes: - Requirements are stable and knowable upfront - Benefits can be accurately predicted years in advance - Once approved, projects execute according to plan - Success equals delivery, not business outcomes

None of these assumptions hold true in today's environment.

Why Business Cases Fail: The Seven Deadly Sins

1. The Optimism Trap

The Problem: Business cases are written by project advocates, not objective analysts. Authors have every incentive to overstate benefits and understate costs.

What Happens: - Benefits are inflated by 30-50% on average - Implementation costs are understated - Ongoing operational costs are minimized or ignored - Risks are glossed over

Real Example: A major retailer approved a £20M CRM implementation based on projected £50M in benefits over 5 years. After go-live, actual benefits totaled £8M. The business case was advocacy dressed as analysis.

The Fix: Separate analysis from advocacy. Have independent teams validate assumptions. Use historical data from similar past projects to reality-check estimates.

2. Analysis Paralysis vs. Rush to Approval

The Problem: Organizations oscillate between two extremes—either spending months perfecting a business case that's outdated by the time it's approved, or rubber-stamping cases to "move fast."

What Happens: - Important projects miss market windows - Quick approvals skip critical analysis - Political projects get fast-tracked - Strategic initiatives drown in bureaucracy

The Fix: Right-size analysis based on project scale and uncertainty. A £100K pilot doesn't need the same rigor as a £10M transformation. Build lightweight processes for speed, comprehensive ones for large bets.

3. The "Build It and They Will Come" Fallacy

The Problem: Business cases assume that if you build the capability, the benefits automatically follow. They ignore the critical change management and adoption challenges.

What Happens: - New systems sit unused because people stick to old ways - Process improvements fail because nobody trained the team - Strategic tools remain inaccessible to those who need them - ROI depends on adoption that never materializes

Real Example: A financial services firm spent £15M on an AI-powered analytics platform. Adoption rate after 18 months? 12%. The promised £40M in efficiency gains? Never realized. The business case never addressed the "Will people actually use this?" question.

The Fix: Build adoption and change management into business cases. Include training costs, change resistance, and realistic adoption timelines. Success requires organizational change, not just technical delivery.

4. Ignoring Opportunity Cost

The Problem: Business cases evaluate projects in isolation. They ask "Is this project worth doing?" instead of "Is this the BEST use of our limited resources?"

What Happens: - Good projects get approved when great alternatives exist - Resource constraints force you to deliver mediocre versions of too many projects - Strategic priorities get squeezed by tactical noise - Portfolio value is suboptimal even if individual projects succeed

The Fix: Evaluate business cases in portfolio context. Compare projects against each other. Force rank initiatives based on strategic value and ROI. Say "not now" to good ideas so you can fully fund great ones.

5. Static Plans in Dynamic Environments

The Problem: Business cases are point-in-time documents. By the time a project starts, market conditions have changed, competitors have moved, and customer needs have evolved.

What Happens: - Projects solve yesterday's problems - Benefits evaporate as market conditions shift - Assumptions become invalid but the project continues anyway - Sunk cost fallacy prevents needed course corrections

Real Example: A telco approved a £30M network upgrade to support projected mobile data growth. By project start 18 months later, 5G had fundamentally changed the landscape. The approved solution was already obsolete, but they built it anyway because "it was approved."

The Fix: Build in stage gates that require benefit revalidation. Make business cases living documents that update with new information. Create kill criteria and actually use them when assumptions prove false.

6. No Accountability for Results

The Problem: Project managers are measured on delivery (scope, schedule, budget), not outcomes (business results). Business case authors move on to other roles. Nobody owns benefit realization.

What Happens: - Projects "succeed" on paper while failing business objectives - Promised savings never materialize but nobody follows up - Revenue projections miss badly with no consequences - Organizations learn nothing because results aren't tracked

The Fix: Assign benefit owners who remain accountable after go-live. Track realization for 1-2 years post-delivery. Tie incentives to business outcomes, not just project completion. Create feedback loops so future business cases incorporate lessons learned.

7. The Missing Pilot

The Problem: Business cases jump straight from concept to full deployment. There's no validation step to test assumptions before making the big bet.

What Happens: - Major investments based on untested hypotheses - Fundamental flaws discovered too late - Point solutions that don't scale as expected - "We'll figure it out during implementation" becomes the plan

Real Example: A manufacturer invested £25M in IoT sensors across all factories based on a business case projecting 20% efficiency gains. A £500K pilot in one factory would have revealed that their old equipment couldn't support the sensors. Instead, they discovered this £10M into the rollout.

The Fix: Build pilots into business cases for innovative or high-uncertainty initiatives. Validate assumptions cheaply before scaling. Use pilot results to refine the business case before full commitment.

What Great Business Cases Look Like

Leading organizations approach business cases differently:

1. Progressive Elaboration

Start with a lightweight hypothesis. Add detail as uncertainty reduces. Don't pretend to know things you can't know.

2. Honest Analysis

Reward truth-telling over optimism. Make it safe to present unfavorable findings. Celebrate when analysis prevents bad investments.

3. Portfolio Context

Evaluate all proposals together. Fund the best portfolio, not individual projects in isolation.

4. Outcome Accountability

Business case authors own benefits realization. Track actual vs. projected results. Learn from variance.

5. Dynamic Validation

Update business cases as conditions change. Build kill criteria and use them. Treat approval as "proceed to validate," not "commit regardless."

6. Embedded Change Management

Include adoption strategy in the business case. Model realistic adoption curves. Fund the change, not just the technology.

The Transformation Impact

When organizations fix their business case process, the results are dramatic:

Before: - 70% of projects fail to deliver promised value - Strategic initiatives can't get funded - Politics drives approval decisions - Benefits are rarely measured - Same mistakes repeated

After: - 60-70% of projects meet or exceed business objectives - Resources flow to highest-value initiatives - Data drives decision-making - Benefits tracking is standard - Continuous improvement of estimation

Your Action Plan

Start improving your business case process today:

Immediate (This Week): - Review your last 5 approved business cases - Compare projected vs. actual benefits (if tracked) - Identify common estimation errors

Short-term (This Month): - Create independent validation process for large initiatives - Build templates that force realistic thinking - Establish benefit tracking for new approvals

Long-term (This Quarter): - Implement portfolio-level evaluation - Create benefit owner accountability - Build pilot validation into high-risk cases

The Bottom Line

The traditional business case process sets projects up to fail. It optimizes for approval rather than outcomes, celebrates delivery over results, and measures activity instead of value.

But it doesn't have to be this way.

Organizations that transform their business case process don't just approve better projects—they become more strategic, more agile, and more competitive. They stop wasting resources on low-value work and start delivering initiatives that truly move the business forward.

The question isn't whether to improve your process. It's whether you can afford not to.

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